By: Elizabeth Turnbull
To say that the EV market faces uncertainty right now is an understatement. After several years of supportive policy and sustained market growth, the early conclusion of federal tax credits—combined with retraction of federal funds and the rescission of key policies such as California’s waiver under the Clean Air Act—puts the EV industry1 in a different landscape. Don’t get me wrong; many in the industry, me included, continue to believe that widespread transportation electrification is both inevitable and necessary, and are working daily toward that future. But how fast that future arrives, and on what trajectory, and how it unfolds, remain somewhat unclear right now.
I find myself thinking often of some advice I learned in high school, when I took a multi-day whitewater rafting trip with my family. There were three things that we were instructed to remember if we fell out of the raft in the middle of the rapids. It feels fair to say that the EV industry has toppled out of the metaphorical raft and has found itself unexpectedly in the middle of the river, so these pieces of advice seem apt.
- Don’t Panic
Rafting guides always stress to clients that it is not unusual to fall out of the raft, and the risks are part of the adventure of whitewater rafting. It’s what makes it different from, say, boating on a lake. The same could be said for a nascent, complex industry transition like transportation electrification. None of us signed up for an easy, calm paddle down a placid stream. In fact, most of us are drawn to this work because of its unknowns and complexities, and the opportunities to work on hard challenges and craft cutting-edge solutions. Swift, fast-changing currents were always to be expected, and this isn’t the first time we’ve experienced them. We know how to work with uncertainty.
- Look Where You’re Going
If you fall out of the raft in the middle of the rapids, the first thing you are directed to do is get your feet pointed downstream. To get anywhere with intention, we must be able to see where we’re going. What this means for the EV industry is that we keep our eyes on the future we are building for, while continually adjusting our forecasts to accommodate new information along the way. We also have to work together, collaborate and share information and data that helps shape those forecasts.
- Breathe in the Trough
In the middle of the rapids, there are troughs and crests. Unseated rafters are told to “breathe in the trough,” because you’re likely to get a face full of water when you reach the top of the crests. The lesson for the EV industry: market slowdowns are a chance to build partnerships, take stock of our approaches, integrate lessons learned, and scale the solutions that work. We have an opportunity to get ahead of the market—whether that means better understanding our customers, building electrical infrastructure to support the charging that will be needed, or integrating vehicles into the grid in ways that solve our challenges instead of exacerbating them.
What does all this mean for the day-to-day in the EV industry? It means we can’t let up. If we keep our faith in the long-term trajectory, there’s no need for near-term panic—and no time for it, either. We have to keep solving the hard challenges that we signed on for, because at some point the current will shift and we’ll need to have solutions in place to accommodate the volume of EVs that are coming. It’s rare to get a second chance to prepare for a transition that is this immense. We’d do well not to squander it.